COVID-19 Projections For USA Are Likely Highly Underestimated

This is a brief glance to the new projections IHME provides currently into August, 2020. Current data shows that daily number of new cases is growing linearly (see Fig. 1)

Fig. 1. Total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Total USA cases grow linearly, but NY State cases are slowing down. The total number for the rest of the country is also growing linearly.

The alarming point is that, in a big picture, only New York state cases are slowing down, the number of cases in the rest of the country is still growing.

Looking at the daily stats (Fig. 2) one can see that total numbers in average stay the same for a month-long period since 4/7/2020. If we exclude the NY state cases, the…

What the next 2 weeks/200 days can look like, if the Americans do everything we can in US. Or if they do nothing.

COVID-19 US data extrapolation March 28
Chart 1. Exponential extrapolation of the COVID-19 US data from Johns Hopkins GitHub archive.

A recent article Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance by Tomas Pueyo was a pivoting point for many to understand and a wake up call to see a new reality of the Coronavirus pandemic for US and hopefully many other countries around the globe. I support signing the WhiteHouse petition referenced by the article, but unfortunately, it still did not reach the goal. The fact shows that even this thunderbolt-like article did not wake up enough people…

Sergey Shalatskiy

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